Germany’s birth rate drops to 10-year record-low

Germany’s birth rate has hit a new record low.  According to the German Institute for Economic Research (Ifo), it now stands at 1.35 children per woman, compared with 1.58 children per woman in 2021.
The decline is even more pronounced in eastern Germany than in Germany’s western states.
According to the German Federal Statistical Office, around 392,000 children were born in Germany between January and July 2024.
Compared to the same period in 2023, this represented 3% fewer babies.
These figures consolidate a downward trend that already characterized the years 2022 and 2023, in which 693,000 newborns were registered. A year prior, in 2021, 795,500 children were born in Germany.
In other words, in 2023, more than every eighth bed in a newborn ward remained empty in comparison with 2021.
Up until 2016, statisticians reported significantly lower numbers of newborns for Germany. In 2013, there were just over 682,000 newborns. In 2015, the number was only slightly higher with 737,000 babies.
In the following peak years between 2016 and 2021, however, more than nine newborns per 1,000 inhabitants were recorded.
In the meantime, this figure has dropped to just 8.2, which is even lower than 10 and 15 years ago.
Significant fluctuations with regard to a country’s newborn rate invariably result in long-term changes. First of all, there is the number of places required for child care and school education. In the longer term, it can affect the workforce as well as a stable financing of pension funds.
Ultimately, a low birth rate is also a factor in the need for immigration.
According to Ifo, the number of births in Germany’s eastern states is falling even more rapidly than in the country’s west.
Across Germany, the number of newborns fell by almost 13% from 2021 to 2023. In Germany’s eastern states, however, the decline was as much as 17.5%.
This is in line with the statistically proven trend that more young women than young men are moving from eastern to western Germany for better career options, or for private reasons.
And yet, the drop in the total number of newborn babies comes as no surprise. After all, the number of women of childbearing age is also falling across the country.
However, this aspect isn’t enough to justify the severity of the trend. Statistics highlight that the drop in newborn numbers is also due to a lower birth rate per woman.
“The childbearing behavior, which is expressed by the birth rate, has changed massively over the past three years,” Joachim Ragnitz, deputy director of the Ifo Dresden branch, told DW.
“The coronavirus crisis, the outbreak of war in Ukraine and also the loss of income due to high inflation have obviously prompted many young families to put off having children for the time being,” he said.
However, these reasons are conjecture and cannot be statistically proven, he added.
In Germany, the decision to have a child is ultimately a private matter.
“A variety of factors are important in this decision, including weighing up the costs and benefits, as well as the question of one’s own life plan,” Ragnitz said.
Yet, the fact that a child is an expense factor of around €180,000 ($194,000) over the first 18 years of their life is indisputable.
Couples or families remain therefore faced with a decision in the “very long term,” said Ragnitz.
In his view, politicians are in charge of changing the underlying calculation “by increasing benefits or reducing the costs.”
In Germany, increasing child care benefits or cutting costs for families have been the subject of debate for decades.
In most cases, there is an ongoing debate about institutional support, for example through comprehensive child care services and a better work-life balance, and individual support in the form of higher child benefits.
There are calculations that such benefits would cost taxpayers up to €200 billion a year. According to the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, these include child benefit and tax-free child allowances as well as investments in education.
“A fundamental social transformation is probably needed in any event,” said Ragnitz. “Nowadays, there are hotels that advertise that they don’t allow children. There is basically an image of disruptive children behind this.”
In his view, this showcases the level of which society as a whole must ask itself how it approaches children and families and what it is willing to do for them in material and non-material terms.
Irrespective of whether politicians contribute to a different mindset and different figures through specific family policy measures or whether society as a whole opens up to a fundamental change in attitude, this will not reverse the trend quickly, according to Ragnitz.
“Either approach can only play a role in the long term, not in the short term as no matter what steps you take, you will only be able to achieve change in the very long term,” he said.
This article was originally written in German.
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